淨 Guide – Germany nears 2030 climate targets, transport and heating remain laggards
With its “淨 Guide” series, the 淨 newsroom and contributors from across Europe are providing journalists with a bird's-eye view of the climate-friendly transition from key countries and the bloc as a whole. You can also sign up to the weekly newsletter here to receive our "Dispatch from..."– weekly updates from Germany, France, Italy, Croatia, Poland and the EU on the need-to-know about the continent’s move to climate neutrality.
Content:
Key background
- As Europe’s largest economy, Germany is a key energy hub in the heart of the continent.
- Greenhouse gas emissions have decreased 48 percent since 1990 and Germany aims for climate neutrality by 2045.
- ұԲ’s trademark “Energiewende” – the country’s transition to climate neutral and nuclear-free energy supply – has broad public backing.
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Germany's new coalition government bringing together the conservative CDU/CSU alliance led by chancellor Friedrich Merz and the Social Democrats (SPD) of previous chancellor Olaf Scholz has opted to continue with its predecessor’s climate and energy policy, without upping the level of ambition. In their coalition agreement, the parties spelled out their policy plans for the next four years, which include a reduction in electricity prices, industry support and infrastructure modernisation. The new coalition has rearranged ministries, and moved the topic of climate out of the economy ministry and back into the environment ministry.
- A rise in support for populist parties might get in the way of pursuing more ambitious climate action, experts have warned. The shift highlights the importance of ensuring climate policies are socially just and that everyone has the possibility to participate in the transition to cleaner transport methods and buildings. [Find more backgroundin this factsheet on East Germany and the energy transition and in our deep dive into the impact of the rise of populists in power].
- Projections by the country's Federal Environment Agency (UBA) showed that the country is on track towards achieving its 2030 climate targets for the first time, not least thanks to the resolute expansion of renewable energy sources. The government-appointed Expert Council on Climate Change has, however, said that more stringent policies and significant investments are needed. Germany's 2023 Climate Action Programme spells out how the country plans to reach its climate targets by the end of the decade, including the goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 65 percent compared to 1990 levels.
Major transition stories
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Historic spending package – An agreement to unlock hundreds of billions of euros for climate and infrastructure investments has fuelled hope that Germany can get over its structural challenges and . A total of 500 billion euros are earmarked for infrastructure and climate investments over the next 12 years, with 100 billion flowing directly to the Climate and Transformation Fund, a special pot earmarked for energy transition projects. Unlocking the funds required an amendment to Germany's constitutional limit on government borrowing, known as the debt brake. The money will likely go to the modernisation of rail networks, energy grids and water infrastructure. Experts have warned that there are not enough skilled workers to carry out the envisaged modernisations, and that lengthy procurement, permitting and planning procedures, as well as supply bottlenecks, might also mean that .
- Economic woes – ұԲ’s political upheaval is playing out against the backdrop of growing concern about the economy as a whole, fuelled by an ongoing decline of manufacturing activity, a weakening labour market, and mounting worries about the future of the country’s carmakers in particular. VW, the country’s largest private employer, .
- Excess emissions – Germany continues to struggle with high emissions, especially in the transport and buildings sectors. Moreover, demand for electric cars is sluggish: the target of putting 15 million electric cars on the road by 2030 increasingly looks out of reach. Transatlantic turmoil stemming from the new US administration under president Donald Trump adds further uncertainties to German car manufacturers’ future.
- Just transition – What started out with a debate about supporting coal workers in mining regions and state subsidies for so-called “structural change” is increasingly turning into a cross-societal debate about leaving no one behind in the transition to climate neutrality. Installing a heat pump, buying an electric car or dealing with higher fuel costs due to CO2 pricing affects everyone, but low-income households will need more support to manage the changes. A just transition will become a big issue not only in Germany, but across Europe, when the new EU emissions trading system for transport and buildings starts in 2027. The "climate bonus," a scheme that would return some of the revenue from Germany's carbon pricing to low-income citizens, was not delivered during Olaf Scholz's legislative period. The new government said it would support low-income households, but did not give exact details as to how. Think tanks and consumer organisations have long called for financially-tiered support and protection mechanisms.
- Hydrogen economy ramp-up – Hydrogen is set to form a key part of Germany's net zero future, especially to decarbonise industry and other hard-to-abate sectors, such as chemicals and aviation. The country has taken several steps to ramp up supply and demand, and has a national hydrogen strategy and a hydrogen import strategy. It has also laid the groundwork for building a "core hydrogen network," with hydrogen flowing in its pipelines from 2025 and work set to be completed by 2032.
- Lower future electricity demand – Due to the sluggish expansion of electric vehicles, heat pumps and hydrogen production, future electricity demand could fall much below initial projections. As a result, renewables and grid expansion plans for the coming years might be oversized and thus costly. The new government has pledged to commission a monitoring review by the summer of 2025, and to regularly check expansion developments.
- Sustainable finance – In contrast to its reputation as an energy transition pioneer, Germany has been a latecomer in tapping into the potential of compelling banks, insurance companies, fund managers and other financial actors to curtail CO2-intensive projects and fund cleaner alternatives.
- Adaptation– The latest climate change monitoring report urged Germany to step up its efforts to adapt to the already unavoidable effects of climate change. The country faces a multitude of negative impacts, including prolonged droughts, severe water loss, floods and increasing temperatures. Under the Climate Adaptation Act, it is now legally binding for the federal states and municipalities to draw up climate risk assessments and implement adaptation measures. The Climate Adaptation Strategy, for the first time, contains quantifiable targets to increase preparedness. Germany also has a water strategy and a natural climate action strategy.
- Carbon removal – Germany's new coalition government is set to introduce a law to enable the capture, transport, utilisation and storage of carbon dioxide (CCS/CCU) for industrial processes where emissions are hard to avoid, as well as for gas-fired power plants. It also considers Direct Air Capture (DAC) as a "potential future technology" to increase negative emissions. A long-term strategy on negative emissions, which was meant to introduce a 2060 target for net-negative greenhouse gas emissions and intermediate targets for technical carbon sinks, did not materialise with the breakup of Olaf Scholz's coalition government in November 2024.
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Electricity supply security and Dunkelflaute events – Germany plans to hold auctions to support the building of 20 gigawatts (GW) of gas-fired power plant capacity by 2030 – eight GW above the previous government's plans. The plants, which will have to be converted to run on hydrogen or use carbon capture technology, will be needed to stabilise the electricity system amid its transition to 100 percent renewable energy sources, which are intermittent by nature. ұԲ’s electricity system remains one of the most reliable in the world amid the expansion of wind and solar, despite the nuclear exit and the fallout from the energy crisis in 2023. Still, Germany will need to expand dispatchable capacity, upgrade grids and leverage consumer flexibility in the transition to clean power to ensure security of supply.
- Raw materials and recycling – The energy crisis fuelled by Russia’s war against Ukraine has pushed the dependence on imports of key raw materials high on the subjects for debate in Germany and Europe. Germany now has a circular economy strategy and a . The EU also presented a Raw Materials Act to ensure it has access to critical materials needed for energy transition technologies.
- 'Franco-German engine' – The European Union faces a multitude of parallel challenges that share the question of how and where it sources its energy in the future. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has pledged to deepen cooperation with ұԲ’s western neighbour France in areas including energy policy, competitiveness and technology. Efforts to further integrate internal markets should also include tighter cooperation with Poland, Merz said.
- Climate foreign policy – Germany is seen as a credible leader in international climate talks despite shortcomings at home, and has hosted the annual Petersberg Climate Dialogue for more than a decade. The new coalition government has reversed the previous leadership's decision to anchor international climate policy in the foreign office, which was meant to highlight the issue's importance, as was the publication of a climate foreign policy strategy. It remains to be seen how the new government treats the international climate negotiations.
- Skills shortage – Major roadblocks to climate neutrality include a lack of skilled workers needed to implement climate mitigation and adaptation projects, such as renewables expansion, energy efficiency and grid modernisation. The government has reformed immigration laws with the aim of filling tens of thousands of vacant energy transition jobs.
Sector overview
Energy
- The sector is responsible for roughly 30 percent of total GHG emissions.
- The last nuclear power plants were shut down in April 2023, completing a decades-long phase-out process. The legal phase-out date for coal is 2038, and there are no phase out targets for oil and gas.
- Citizens’ wind and solar projects helped ignite a shift to renewables that raised the share in the power mix of wind turbines, solar panels and other renewable technologies from 4 percent in 1990 to 55 percent in 2024 (2030 target: 80 percent).
- Germany plans a massive expansion of renewables over the coming decade, but also to build additional gas power plants (to be converted to run on hydrogen, or equipped with carbon capture technology) as a supplement to intermittent wind and solar electricity. While wind power expansion is picking up, it is still off the 2030 target path. The solar sector is more clearly on an upward trend.
- However, oil, gas and coal are still very important energy sources, for example in transport and heating: the share of renewables in total energy consumption reached 20 percent in 2024.
- The energy crisis fuelled by Russia’s war on Ukraine forced a huge shift in energy supply and potentially helped speed up the energy transition, but led to a domestic LNG buildout.
Industry
- The sector is of total GHG emissions; most industry emissions are covered under the EU ETS.
- Germany is (e.g. steel, chemicals, cement) to make it fit for a climate-neutral world and to host the industrial production of the future. The government agreed on a package of measures worth billions of euros in 2024 alone to boost the international competitiveness of its prized heavy industry.
- However, things are set to change. Researchers say it is unrealistic to carry out all energy-intensive production steps for green raw materials in Germany in the future, mainly because renewable electricity generation will be much cheaper elsewhere. The country should focus on further processing in the steel and chemical industries and in the downstream sectors of the economy.
- Industry support measures include a “pioneering” scheme to assist industry in transitioning away from fossil fuels through auctions. The so-called “climate contracts”could inject dozens of billions of euros in subsidies into helping to make the production of steel, cement, chemicals and other materials climate neutral.
- After a long period of resistance, companies are fully taking on the challenge and see business opportunities in the global race to net-zero industry.
- Green hydrogen is seen as key to decarbonising industrial processes. Germany aims to become a global technology leader and has laid down plans in its national hydrogen strategy. The government has also published a hydrogen import strategy, as the country will largely have to import the green fuel from abroad due to unfavourable local conditions for renewable electricity production.
Buildings
- Buildings are responsible for 15 percent of total GHG emissions, mostly through heating and cooling with fossil fuels (only direct emissions; excludes emissions from electricity use, district heating, industrial buildings).
- 2024: 56 percent of , 17 percent with oil, 16 percent with district heating.
- The buildings sector has failed to meet its annual emission reduction targets since 2020.
- The government’s goals include no more fossil fuel heating systems by 2045 at the latest; the step-by-step de facto ban on new fossil heating systems; and 500,000 newly installed heat pumps per year from 2024. Sales of low-carbon heat pumps grew considerably in 2023, but collapsed in 2024, widely missing the target. This was due in large parts to uncertainty caused by the controversial debate around a law phase out fossil fuel heating.
- Germany is faced with a stagnation of the of the existing building stock, although the pace has picked up. Final energy demand of residential buildings in recent years. Confronted with a crisis in the construction sector and a housing shortage, the government decided to suspend the tightening of new building efficiency rules initially planned for 2025.
- The government has introduced a subsidy programme worth billions of euros for the installation of climate-friendly heating systems.
- The government introduced a law to oblige communities to come up with municipal heat planning. It aims to fund the expansion and decarbonisation of district heating (still mostly gas and coal-fuelled).
Mobility
- The sector is responsible for nearly 22 percent of total GHG emissions.
- Transport has been dubbed the “problem child” of the transition, as emissions are falling much slower than in other sectors. Transport has also repeatedly failed its annual climate target, and the government failed to deliver proposals to get it back on track.
- Car-country Germany has many policies that support the use of passenger cars, including no general motorway speed limit, and still often tries to accommodate the needs of the country's car makers, which have invested in expensive, high-end combustion engine models like ever bigger SUVs.
- Germany is aiming to have 15 million electric vehicles and one million public charging points on the road by 2030, but is set to miss the EV target. The number of EVs registered in the country stood at 1.65 million in January 2025.
- Tarnished by the dieselgate scandal, iconic carmakers VW, BMW and Daimler struggle in the global race to green auto transport with heavy competition, for example from the U.S. and China.
- Infrastructure investments are the focus of Germany's historic spending package, and some of the money is set to be earmarked for road and rail modernisations. Rail operator Deutsche Bahn has become the target of strong criticism as long-delayed investments in infrastructure have caused severe disruptions in long-distance travel.
- Germany introduced a flat-rate ticket for regional and local travel (Deutschlandticket), which has had a positive impact on passenger numbers. Mobility experts say there are in rural areas for a serious shift away from the car.
- People in Germany's cities are completing more journeys by bicycle or foot, while the dominance of cars is decreasing, according to the latest ' report.
- Freight produces one-third of transport emissions in the trade hub in Europe’s heart. Volumes are growing, but greening the sector remains a sideshow.
- Low water levels in the Rhine river — ұԲ’s most important shipping route for raw materials — as a result of climate change threaten to severely disrupt supply chains reliant on water transport.
Agriculture
- The sector is responsible for 8 percent of total GHG emissions (mainly methane from livestock farming, nitrous oxide as result of nitrogen fertilisation; excluding LULUCF).
- Emissions have fallen by a quarter since 1990, in large parts in years after the German reunification, when livestock numbers were reduced. They accounted for about 9 percent of total emissions in 2023.
- Like everywhere in the world, the reduction of emissions in farming also depends on shifts in food consumption, often part of polarising debates when they require changes to personal lifestyles and traditional eating habits.
- Annual meat consumption in Germany is in decline, and many people consider the impact their dietary choices have on the environment and climate.
- Policymakers are in close talks with farmers to balance their needs with the need to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. However, protests against decarbonisation measures by the farming industry dominated headlines in early 2024 - even though climate policy was widely regarded as a trigger rather than an underlying cause for the farmers' dissatisfaction.
Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
- Taken together, forests, peatland, meadows and other land in Germany are net carbon sinks in some years, and a net greenhouse gas emission source in other years (2 equivalent in 2022).
- Climate law target: -25 mln tonnes by 2030, -35 mln t by 2040, -40 mln t by 2045.
- A 2024 report from the agriculture ministry said forests across Germany have become a net source of carbon dioxide for the first time since records began. The environment agency (UBA) says the emissions trend is “,” as recent years have shown decreasing net carbon storage in forests and high emissions from organic soils of farmland and grassland.
- The government introduced measures for natural climate action, and a moorland strategy.
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