威力彩玩法

Amid the set in motion by the new US administration, the question whether a new German government will defend the landmark European Green Deal has become critical for the EU鈥檚 ambition to remain a global leader in progressive climate action. Germany, alongside Europe, has seen its certainty on security, trade, and diplomacy in the transatlantic relationship evaporate overnight, as Donald Trump assumed the role as US president for the second time. Yet the EU鈥檚 largest economy has been too preoccupied forging a new government to show real leadership on the global stage, after the last coalition collapsed on the very day that US voters elected Trump back to the White House.

While fellow EU states are waiting for conservative chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz鈥檚 CDU/CSU alliance to finally sign off a coalition deal with the Social Democrats (SPD) of outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz, the new geopolitical realities presented by the Trump administration are already . With the US withdrawing from its role as the underwriter of global free trade and European security, this includes Berlin鈥檚 willingness to finance joint EU initiatives and deepen the internal market through initiatives like a or an . It also changes the play, as European sovereignty on defence, energy, become key talking points. 聽

European partners are therefore hoping for a chancellor Merz who fully grasps the scale of the task at hand and focusses on building alliances in the EU and beyond based on joint strategic priorities that are implemented with consistency.

鈥�,鈥� Merz sought to reassure his country鈥檚 allies in April, signalling that the conservative leader who started his political career in the European Parliament in 1989 and the need for a unified European response to protect Germany鈥檚 national interests. One of his first moves after the election included pushing an unprecedented spending package through parliament. The special fund worth hundreds of billions of euros and reforms to the country鈥檚 debt brake that it might swap Germany鈥檚 traditional fiscal cautiousness for more generous economic stimulus policies.

EU has tied future economic success to climate ambitions

Under Scholz鈥檚 three-party coalition, European partners too often sorely missed a clear message from the German chancellery, Sophie Pornschlegel, deputy director at the think-tank Europe Jacques Delors told 威力彩玩法. 鈥淭here鈥檚 definitely a sense of optimism, almost euphoria even, that the new government will be more decisive on European matters than Scholz was,鈥� Pornschlegel said. However, 鈥渢his doesn鈥檛 mean that Berlin should call the shots alone, but rather take the initiative in unifying positions among EU partners.鈥�

Most importantly, the next German chancellor must avoid acting on a 鈥楪ermany first鈥� platform and ensure that Europe will benefit along the way through some sort of 鈥渢rickle down鈥� effect, Pornschlegel said. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a great interest in Europe that Germany takes greater leadership and acts decisively in central policy areas,鈥� she argued, adding that 鈥渨e now need a European answer first 鈥� and that ultimately will also benefit Germany.鈥� This would include coherent initiatives on industry competitiveness, strengthening the EU鈥檚 budget, and managing decarbonisation, she argued.

The Merz government鈥檚 proposed coalition treaty has largely held course on central climate and energy policies, even if the parties emphasised economic competitiveness over climate action, especially in comparison to the previous coalition. For Kurt Vandenberghe, who leads the EU Commission鈥檚 department on climate action, there are few alternatives for Europe but to stick to if it is serious in its bid to reinvigorate the continent鈥檚 industry.

The deal that was approved in 2020 sketches a path towards EU climate neutrality by 2050 and aims to decouple economic growth from resource use. 鈥淭he climate agenda is an agenda for modernising the economy and preparing it for a future that is warmer, less secure and globally more competitive,鈥� Vandenberghe told journalists in March in Brussels. By this logic, the chancellor-in-waiting, who has of his government鈥檚 success, should strive for consistency with the country鈥檚 national energy transition as well as with the Green Deal.

Competitiveness in Europe would be 鈥渋mpossible鈥� to achieve in the future if the bloc鈥檚 energy system remained centred around fossil fuel-based technologies, Vandenberghe argued. For the Commission鈥檚 chief climate bureaucrat, the Green Deal therefore is 鈥渁 shock therapy that we鈥檝e delayed for too long.鈥� Throughout all the consecutive crises Europe has dealt with since 2019, 鈥渘o change in government has led to a fundamental questioning of climate targets.鈥�

The fact that climate policy provides a binding framework for the next 25 years for the sake of a shared European goal would act as an advantage, Vandenberghe added. 鈥淎ccess to and availability of green investments is more secure in Europe than in the US, posing a comparative advantage for us,鈥� he added. As the Trump administration in the US seemed bent on splitting the world 鈥渋nto countries who want to keep fossil fuels and those who want to electrify,鈥� Europe had 鈥渘o choice but to pick the latter side.鈥�

Appetite for ambitious emission reductions has waned across Europe

But despite new and , the appetite for ambitious climate policy has waned across Europe between the 鈥榗limate election鈥� in 2019 and the following 鈥榯ractor election鈥� in 2024. As climate action slid down on the list of priorities for many governments in favour of bolstering industry and competitiveness, the second Commission under Merz鈥檚 fellow CDU member Ursula von der Leyen presented its 鈥榦mnibus package鈥�, which throttled climate action and sustainability ambitions under the guise of cutting bureaucracy and streamlining policies. Moreover, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra , giving the next German government time to present its own position to the proposed 90-percent emission reduction target. The initial signals coming from Merz's government suggest that it will consent to the target, but only with the so far unprecedented caveat of being allowed to offset emissions outside of Europe.

The sense urgency of committing to decarbonisation measures also has ebbed in the European Parliament. In 2019, Europe鈥檚 directly elected representatives and urged the Commission to align all policy with the UN鈥檚 target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Six years on, and with some researchers , the EU Parliament has changed its composition and stance. And its biggest faction, the European Peoples鈥� Party (EPP), of which Merz鈥檚 CDU/CSU is the biggest member, is on climate ambition. 鈥淭he Green Deal really is under attack in the new parliament,鈥澛燼ccording to Green Party MEP Michael Bloss. 鈥淭his is unfortunate since it provides a pathway on a wide range of sectors that are designed in conjunction,鈥� he argued. For example, lower CO2 reduction targets for cars - a constant battleground for consecutive German governments - would translate into higher CO2 prices, Bloss explained. 鈥淭his is much more difficult to communicate to citizens.鈥�

鈥淐reating more insecurity by scrapping parts of the Green Deal must be avoided,鈥� the Green MEP warned, adding that the in the EU Parliament could set dangerous precedents for climate policy. 鈥淢aybe the current changes to the security architecture will push the EPP further into pro-European territory,鈥� he added.

Merz at risk of coalition infighting and far-right pressure

For EU think tank deputy director Pornschlegel, Merz鈥檚 general approach to climate policy puts Germany more in line with the European mainstream again, compared to the previous government. 鈥淐onstraints posed by the Green Deal increasingly are seen as a nuisance,鈥� she said. The challenge for the next German government would be to make clear that 鈥渄ecarbonisation, energy security, and economic competitiveness really are interlinked and need to be treated as such.鈥� Opening the door to gutting regulation through initiatives like the omnibus law therefore went in the wrong direction and jeopardised the coherence of European climate policy, Pornschlegel argued.

However, it is unclear how much leadership Merz will be able to muster on this task. Like outgoing chancellor Scholz, whose coalition collapsed over quarrels about climate and transformation funding, Merz is not immune to the internal spats and pitfalls of coalition governments. Initial discrepancies in the conservative camp, for example regarding between senior CDU politicians and , leader of the CDU鈥檚 sister party Christian Social Union (CSU), or with the SPD Alternative for Germany (AfD), give a flavour of stress tests the aspiring coalition might face.

The conservatives鈥� flip-flopping on Germany鈥檚 nuclear exit (which the CDU/CSU insisted on reversing before dropping the demand in the coalition treaty), the EU鈥檚 planned 2035 ban on new combustion engine cars (which the SPD supports but the conservatives vehemently oppose) or the planned expansion of the EU鈥檚 emissions trading system (ETS2) on transport and heating in 2027 are examples for potential energy and climate policy stumbling blocks 鈥� and could further by Merz鈥檚 political opponents.

While even the previous government with the Green Party over fears of a popular backlash, the new chancellor-in-waiting has carbon pricing under the ETS should become the central pillar of decarbonisation efforts. But the 2018 鈥榶ellow vest鈥� protests in France in response to a similar surcharge on fuel prices still reverberate in Brussels as a reminder of the potential for disruption, and for exploitation by various actors, of climate policy.聽 and a rejection of conservative voters made by the conservatives to the centre-left SPD on the national debt brake add further pressure on Merz聽 and could see climate action become a priority for the opposition rather than for the government.

Moreover, the major spending package鈥檚 by sluggish bureaucratic decision-making chains, the intricacies of the federal system, and practical issues in ensuring that money is disbursed and materials and workers are in place for implementation 鈥� while Trump鈥檚 tariff turmoil adds further woes to economic recovery prospects. To keep course on core decarbonisation and industrial recovery components linked to the Green Deal, Merz would have to focus on close coordination with Germany鈥檚 largest neighbours, France and Poland, Pornschlegel said. 鈥淚f the goal is to support Europe as a whole, it must be decided at the EU level.鈥�

Merz鈥檚 arrival had , as a revival of the 鈥楩ranco-German engine鈥� as an axis for EU 聽progress proved difficult during Scholz鈥檚 tenure, not least due to engrained differences over the right approach to energy policy. The aspiring German chancellor鈥檚 early announcements to as well as budding plans for a renewed Franco-German push to harmonise European energy policy could be seen as a sign that Merz is willing to take on the new role Europe needs Germany to play.