Q&A: What Canada鈥檚 election means for climate action and ties with Europe amid Trump-era tensions
***Please note: This Q&A is part of a cooperation of 威力彩玩法 (威力彩玩法) with Canadian non-profit news outlet . 威力彩玩法, Europe's leading platform for collaborative and solution-oriented climate and energy journalism, has teamed up with The Mix, a vital community resource on the progress and challenges of the energy transition, to better connect the climate and energy stories from Europe and Canada.***
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Note: This factsheet was written and published ahead of the election on 28 April.
Mark Carney's Liberal Party the Canadian election, in what the BBC called a remarkable turnaround for the centre-left party. The Liberals , which means they need to lean on other parties in parliament to pass legislation as .
Contents
- What鈥檚 at stake for Canada鈥檚 climate and energy policy in this election?
- Where do Canada鈥檚 main political parties stand on climate and energy?
- How is Trump redefining Canada鈥檚 election on sovereignty, energy, and US ties?
- What would a shift in government mean for Canada鈥檚 global climate reputation?
- What implications does the Canadian election hold for transatlantic climate and energy relations?
- How does the Canadian federal election process work?
What鈥檚 at stake for Canada鈥檚 climate and energy policy in this election?
Led by the Conservatives, Canada would prioritise fossil fuel and ease regulations to support oil and gas. Under the Liberals, it would lean toward stronger clean energy partnerships and trade alignment with global allies 鈥� including through emissions in the oil and gas sector, .
Mark Carney from the Liberals has Canada鈥檚 climate commitments and is expected to carry forward most of former prime minister Justin 罢谤耻诲别补耻鈥檚 clean energy and climate policies. From 2015 to 2025, 罢谤耻诲别补耻鈥檚 Liberal government of climate, energy efficiency, and renewable energy measures and set out to environmental impact assessment. At the same time, the government spent billions of dollars to nationalise, then the controversial , supported expanded exports of Canadian fossil fuels, and joined some provincial governments in and new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals. While Canada鈥檚 natural gas exports currently flow almost entirely to the US via pipeline, its first LNG shipments to Asia are expected by mid-2025.
罢谤耻诲别补耻鈥檚 consumer carbon tax introduced in 2019 was designed to put a price on pollution while rebating more money to most Canadians than they paid out through higher prices. But the policy was complicated and its rollout was a major . As a result, the main opposition Conservative Party and its allies in some provincial governments turn the carbon tax into a lightning rod for controversy. While the consumer carbon tax was on 1 April 2025, a separate is still in place and widely seen as a cornerstone of any future effort to align Canada鈥檚 trade strategy and climate policies with partners outside North America.
Through it all, Canada is only to meet its 2030 emission reduction targets, and remains a amid growing global pressure to phase out fossil fuels. Public opinion supports nature and side by side, although in the face of the affordability crisis and following US president Donald Trump鈥檚 explicit threats to Canada鈥檚 status as an independent nation. The election will determine the ground on which these policy battles are fought.
Where do Canada鈥檚 main political parties stand on climate and energy?
Carney鈥檚 Liberals
Liberal leader Mark Carney a 鈥溾�� programme to grow the country鈥檚 economy while tackling climate change, earning support from green advocates. But his pragmatic stance has led some to question where he stands on key issues. He once praised 罢谤耻诲别补耻鈥檚 consumer carbon tax, then it when it became politically divisive. His focus is now on tightening carbon markets for industrial polluters and giving companies more price certainty to drive investments in emissions reduction.
Carney would incentives for electric vehicles and home retrofits. He backs a carbon border adjustment aligning Canada with trade partners like the European Union and would keep the Trudeau government鈥檚 emissions cap on oil and gas, while working with industry to meet climate targets 鈥� including by supporting carbon capture and storage (CCS) development. His proposed includes ports, rail, airports, highways, and critical mineral mining, but no new oil pipelines 鈥� though he has previously supported them. In a on 17 April, he specifically expressed support for CCS and small modular nuclear reactors as elements of a low-carbon future.
Poilievre鈥檚 Conservatives
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre vowed to axe 罢谤耻诲别补耻鈥檚 widely unpopular consumer carbon tax, but that central campaign promise was blunted when Trudeau resigned and incoming PM Mark Carney eliminated the tax himself.
Poilievre now to go further by ending carbon pricing for industrial polluters and cancelling the oil and gas emissions cap. His plan to involves repealing the federal Impact Assessment Act 鈥� a Trudeau-era law that mandates environmental, health, social, and economic assessments, including consideration of Indigenous rights 鈥� before approving major resource projects. Instead, Poilievre backs faster approvals along pre-approved corridors for pipelines and power lines.
Indigenous leader Savanna McGregor, Grand Chief of the Algonquin Anishinabeg Nation Tribal Council, that plan would 鈥渘early paralyse鈥� project development if it failed to uphold the constitutional requirement to consult Indigenous communities before approving major infrastructure 鈥� a right rooted in Canada鈥檚 recognition of Indigenous peoples as distinct nations with title to their lands. Some coastal Indigenous groups are preparing to Poilievre鈥檚 plan to scrap a law that bans oil tankers from environmentally sensitive parts of Canada鈥檚 west coast, legislation that the oil industry argues is restricting export opportunities.
Bloc Qu茅b茅cois, NDP, Greens
Based on polling throughout the campaign, none of the three other parties in the House of Commons 鈥� the Bloc Qu茅b茅cois, the New Democratic Party of Canada (NDP), or the Green Party of Canada鈥攚ill have any chance of forming Canada鈥檚 next government. Any or all of them could have significant influence in a minority Parliament, but at the moment all signs point to a majority Liberal government.
Among the three, the Bloc has been the most consistent voice against new oil and gas pipelines, tapping into public opinion in Qu茅bec that decisive climate action more than in any other province. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh was the only one to discuss climate impacts and climate despair in the leaders鈥� televised debate. The Green Party is very small in Canada; it currently holds two seats in Parliament, and is at risk of losing one of them.
How is Trump redefining Canada鈥檚 election on sovereignty, energy, and US ties?
Trump鈥檚 threats have completely transformed the dynamic in this election.
In early January, Trudeau had been in office for nearly a decade, his popularity across the country had , and the opposition Conservative Party was running 25 points ahead of the Liberals in pre-election polling. Trudeau on 6 January, and Mark Carney 鈥� the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, credited with guiding Canada through the 2008 economic crash and the UK through Brexit 鈥� was sworn in on 14 March after winning the Liberal leadership at a party convention.
The federal election campaign began . For years, opposition leader Poilievre had been campaigning on his promise to 鈥渁xe the tax鈥� (which Carney did almost immediately) and a deeply personal of Trudeau and some of his top cabinet ministers.
But now, the top is who can best defend Canada鈥檚 economy and sovereignty from Trump 鈥� who a 25 percent tariff on Canadian steel and aluminium, pledged to car manufacturing in Canada, issued shifting trade threats that triggered , and repeatedly joked () that Canada should become the 51st US state. As of 19 April, polling aggregator 338Canada the Liberals leading the Conservatives 43 percent to 38 percent, a that 鈥� if reflected in the election results 鈥� would likely provide the Liberals with enough seats to form a government.
Canada鈥檚 fossil fuel industry received Poilievre鈥檚 after it a massive public relations push framing new pipelines and looser regulations as key to protecting the economy and sovereignty from Trump. Some opinion polls show for new pipelines. While Carney is being vague about pipelines, senior Liberal cabinet ministers have pointed out that there is to build one, and the coming decline in global fossil fuel demand would ultimately turn any new fossil infrastructure into an expensive .
What would a shift in government mean for Canada鈥檚 global climate reputation?
In 2015, shortly after he was first elected, Trudeau travelled to the Paris climate conference to , 鈥淐anada is back, my friends. We鈥檙e here to help.鈥� The policy decisions that followed, along with 罢谤耻诲别补耻鈥檚 appointment of an who had attended every United Nations climate summit since COP 1 in various roles, helped solidify Canada鈥檚 standing as a constructive voice in international climate diplomacy.
Although the election will determine the 鈥渄irection of travel鈥�, as COP negotiators like to say, for Canada鈥檚 international climate policies, those issues haven鈥檛 been addressed in any depth in the course of the election. But a Liberal government under Mark Carney would be far more likely to stay the course than a Conservative government under Pierre Poilievre.
What implications does the Canadian election hold for transatlantic climate and energy relations?
During the Liberal Party leadership campaign, Carney talked about with and hinted at a carbon border adjustment tax (CBAM) that would essentially serve as a tariff against high-carbon imports.
While the election campaign has largely focused on domestic issues, the Liberals staged a on 18 April in the iconic border city of Niagara Falls, where Carney accused Trump of 鈥渞upturing 鈥� literally rupturing 鈥� the global economy鈥�.
Of all the party leaders, Carney has been most vocal about moving beyond Canada鈥檚 economic dependence on the United States and building wider, more diversified trading relationships. In the course of the campaign, there has been a good deal of about what a new, low-carbon trading bloc might look like, with the EU, the United Kingdom, and Canada joined in various scenarios by Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, or Australia.
There have been no public indications that any of Canada鈥檚 party leaders have been actively involved in those discussions, although Carney travelled to Europe during his first week as Prime Minister for high-level meetings with 鈥溾�� like France and the UK. There has been some that Carney鈥檚 past international profile as governor of the Bank of England and UN special envoy for climate finance will raise the potential and the expectation for Canada to step up more concretely if the Liberals win the election.
Poilievre has his and public persona from Trump鈥檚 and to coherently critique the US administration鈥檚 economic warfare and annexation threats. That鈥檚 partly because the small proportion of Canadians who support Trump, or less who are prepared to consider annexation, are at the heart of the Conservatives鈥� political base. During the leaders鈥� debate, Poilievre said he would address climate change by exporting more liquefied natural gas, presumably as a replacement for coal, to countries like India. The emissions footprint of gas, however, to that of coal if the entire life cycle, including methane leaks during production and transportation, are accounted for. Methane, the primary component in gas, a climate super-pollutant with 84 times more global warming potential than carbon dioxide over the crucial 20-year span when humanity will be scrambling to get climate change under control.
These differences in policy and approach will also come into play when Canada the next G7 leaders鈥� summit in Kananaskis, Alberta June 15-17. 鈥淭his year will be an opportunity for Canada to demonstrate our leadership and advance meaningful dialogue, collective action, and innovative solutions, for the benefit of all peoples,鈥� Canada鈥檚 G7 website currently states.
How does the Canadian federal election process work?
Canada is a federation made up of a national government, 10 provinces, and three territories. On 28 April, Canadians will vote for the 343 members of the House of Commons, each of whom will represent a geographic constituency. The 105 seats in Canada鈥檚 appointed Senate are not affected by this month鈥檚 vote.
The prime minister, who serves as the head of government, is the leader of the party that holds the majority of seats in the House of Commons. If no party wins at least 172 seats in the 28 April election, the party with the most seats has the first opportunity to form a functioning government by negotiating for support from smaller parties. This can be through a but coalition.
While the federal government has jurisdiction to regulate pollution and interprovincial or international trade, the provinces hold 鈥� and often loudly assert 鈥� their authority over natural resources, including oil, gas, and coal.
