Shake-up in Bavaria's election may impact German energy policy
Voters in Bavaria seem poised to deliver a political earthquake at the upcoming state elections that could impact politics in Germany鈥檚 capital Berlin as the long-ruling regional conservative CSU faces a historic slump. The latest polls even suggest the possibility of a coalition government with the Green Party in Munich after the vote on 14 October. But whether a coalition in Bavaria will help end the standstill in energy and climate policy of Chancellor Angela Merkel鈥檚 government is far from certain.
The聽Christian Social Union (CSU) has ruled Bavaria for more than 60 years and is part of the federal government, together with Merkel鈥檚 Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democrats. The usually self-confident party has seen its poll ratings slump over the course of the campaign as the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) on the right and the Green Party on the center-left have been eating into its voter base.
The traditional聽CSU is still expected to clinch by far the largest voter share in one of Germany鈥檚 richest and most populous states and will therefore continue to lead the government. However, the party鈥檚 attempts to fend off the right-wing populists have fuelled an internal brawl in the federal government's conservative camp over immigration and paralysed national politics, putting other vital issues 鈥� like climate and energy policy 鈥� on the back burner.
The disputes over immigration and a host of other topics plague Merkel鈥檚 government 鈥� which just took power in spring 2018 after six months of coalition talks - and have even threatened its collapse. In an unusual alliance, traditional energy companies, the renewables industry and environmental organisations have lambasted the grand coalition for its avoidance of energy policy issues that are core to both the country鈥檚 energy transition and its economy.
Political scientist Gero Neugebauer warns that the Bavarian election may not fix the problem. 鈥淭he fundamental disputes will not be resolved with the election,鈥� he told the 威力彩玩法. 鈥淎ll actors have internal problems, the solutions presented so far 鈥� for example in the areas of housing, climate policy and diesel emissions, or immigration 鈥� are fragile, and doubts about the coalition's ability to govern remain high.鈥�
Conservatives set to lose absolute majority in Bavaria
Ten days before the 2018 election, it gained in 2013, securing only about 33-35 percent of the vote 鈥� a devastating prediction for a party whose share is usually more than 50 percent and . A re-shuffle of leadership positions in the party and the national cabinet could thus be in the offing.
According to the polls, the Green Party (19 percent) and the far-right populist AfD (10 percent) would gain the most over previous results. [Find more information in the 威力彩玩法 factsheet Facts on the German state elections in Bavaria]
In tradition-bound Bavaria, that immigration dominates the topics most important for the electorate, followed by cost of living/rent and education. Environment and climate change on the other hand , despite the fact that they are closely linked to national policies that are vital for some of the key industries in the economic heavyweight state. Only about ten percent of voters label these as some of the most important problems Bavaria faces.
The picture-book state with its rich green alpine landscapes, Walt Disney-inspiring Neuschwanstein Castle, Oktoberfest and champion football club FC Bayern Munich, is one of Germany鈥檚 most vibrant innovation hubs. It is home to corporate giants like BMW, which has embraced e-mobility more vigorously than other German carmakers, and to industry behemoth Siemens, but also to start-ups and smaller players like decentralised energy system company Sonnen.
In recent years, policies related to the national energy transition, the Energiewende, have topped the headlines in Bavaria 鈥� from shutting down nuclear power plants to building massive new power lines that carry electricity from wind farms in the north to industry in the south.
鈥淣umber one green energy state鈥�
On energy and climate, CSU representatives have fought for favourable conditions for Bavarians who commute to work by car, for companies that manufacture these cars, for farmers who want recurring compensation payments for building power transmission lines on their land, for citizens who want the power lines underground, for people with rooftop solar PV panels, and for those who oppose wind turbines too close to their homes. The CSU not only rigorously defends the interests of its conservative 鈥� and often rural 鈥� Bavarian electorate, it also does so on the federal level. [Also read 威力彩玩法鈥檚 factsheet for background on the influence of federal states on Germany鈥檚 energy transition]
In a recent , state premier and CSU frontrunner Markus S枚der called Bavaria the 鈥渘umber one green energy state鈥�.
While Bavaria produces very little electricity from coal, it generates a lot of bioenergy and has the highest amount of installed capacity of , and of all federal states. In 2016, of power generation came from renewables, most of it from hydro, PV and bioenergy.
The state 驳辞惫别谤苍尘别苍迟鈥檚 2015 鈥溾�� stipulates several energy transition targets for 2025. Primary energy consumption is to be reduced by 10 percent over 2010, and renewable energy should cover 20 percent of primary energy consumption and 70 percent of power generation.
So far, however, Bavaria lacks a sizable number of wind parks to help reach these goals. New installations of onshore turbines , which has led to stark criticism by the regional branch of the German Wind Energy Association (BWE).
鈥淪orry, Bavaria just isn鈥檛 a wind power state,鈥� said S枚der in the TV debate, and criticised the aesthetic impact of 150-200 metre-high turbines 鈥� giant 鈥溾�� 鈥� on the state鈥檚 landscape. Wind power opposition in Bavaria resulted in the so-called聽, which the government introduced in 2014. It stipulates that new installations must maintain a distance from the nearest settlement equalling ten times the turbine鈥檚 height.聽
Bavaria also still produces almost 40 percent of its electricity from nuclear energy. ), it is 鈥渞elatively clear that Bavaria will not be able to cover its own power needs after nuclear power plants are switched off [at the end of 2021 and 2022], and will increasingly depend on imports.鈥�
As major German power lines from the windy north down to Bavaria will likely not be finished before 2025, securing power supply in 2022-25 will be a challenge for the next Bavarian government, writes AEE.
鈥淟aptop and lederhosen鈥�
Bavaria likes to portray itself as a modern state rooted in tradition, often summed up in the motto 鈥溾��. The most recent example is 鈥淏avaria One鈥�, the CSU 驳辞惫别谤苍尘别苍迟鈥檚 . Premier S枚der was mocked on social media for the self-referential ambitious new plan, because his portrait was used as its logo.
Zukunft hei脽t Technologie. Bayern ist Marktf眉hrer: wir investieren in Digitalisierung, Robotik, k眉nstliche Intelligenz, Hyperloop und Raumfahrt und entwickeln sogar Quantencomputer.
鈥� Markus S枚der (@Markus_Soeder)
The Bavarian innovator Sonnen was recently as a small enterprise that started out supplying batteries, but has the ambition to challenge and even supplant Germany鈥檚 giant utilities as 鈥渁 kind of energy Facebook鈥�.
At the other end of the spectrum, German luxury car giant BMW 鈥� headquartered in Munich 鈥� is seen as a pioneer in e-mobility and sustainability among German carmakers. And, following in the footsteps of federal states Saarland, Rhineland-Palatinate, North-Rhine Westphalia, and Baden-W眉rttemberg, the Bavarian government recently started to vie for the construction of a Tesla Gigafactory in the state.
After the vote 鈥� a possible role for the Greens?
Should the CSU鈥檚 lone rule in Bavaria come to an end on 14 October, however, the AfD is not seen as a partner. National and state polls show the Greens on the rise, benefiting from both the surge of the AfD and perceived government chaos.
The prospect of the Greens forming a coalition with the CSU post-election in Bavaria is still quite uncertain, but many in the party are hopeful this could help reshape the state鈥檚 energy and climate policy.
Katharina Schulze, one of the two top candidates of the Green Party, has signalled openness: 鈥淚 didn鈥檛 go into politics to die in beauty on the sidelines,鈥� said Schulze recently. 鈥済et rid of the wind energy blockade (10H)鈥� and reach 100 percent renewables in power production by 2030.
Looking ahead to after the election, the CSU itself is largely keeping mum on possible coalition scenarios and campaigns for the strongest result possible. Bavarian voters should be wary of the possibility of a 鈥渃ompletely unstable government鈥� like in other states, recently. 鈥淚 advocate for leaving it the way it is.鈥�
From 2008 鈥� 2013, the Free Democratic Party (FDP)鈥檚 were in coalition with the CSU, but this time they are seen taking about 40 percent of the vote together, according to current polls. The FDP is also at risk of not passing the 5-percent threshold to enter parliament, while the Left Party has the chance to make it into the parliament for the first time. The conservative Free Voters鈥� party head Hubert Aiwanger his party would be available for a coalition with the CSU. The Free Voters are currently polling at 11 percent.
According to current polls, the only two-party alliance could be forged with the Green Party. recently found that 50 percent of voters said a coalition of CSU and Green Party would be 鈥済ood鈥�, while only 31 percent said this of the CSU governing alone.
