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24 Mar 2017, 00:00
Benjamin Wehrmann Julian Wettengel

Saarland election first test on road to next Energiewende government

2012 Saarland state election results and latest poll for 2017. Source - Landeswahlleiterin / wahlrecht.de 2017.
2012 Saarland state election results and latest poll for 2017. Source - Landeswahlleiterin / wahlrecht.de 2017.
All eyes are on the federal state of Saarland kicking off Germany鈥檚 election year on 26 March. An otherwise unremarkable campaign started to engage national politics when the Social Democrats put forward their new federal election frontrunner Martin Schulz, who bolstered his party in national and state polls and opened up new coalition options. Although energy and climate policy are unlikely to affect the vote's outcome, observers say Saarland's new government might well serve as a template for the next national Energiewende government.

鈥淎ll of a sudden, it鈥檚 unclear whether the grand coalition of Christian and Social Democrats in Saarland can continue,鈥 political scientist Arne Jungjohann told 威力彩玩法. 鈥淲e might as well see a left-leaning coalition by the SPD and the Left party [dubbed red-red, due to the parties鈥 colours] or by both of them complemented by the Green party,鈥 [dubbed red-red-green] Jungjohann explains.

Until recently, the upcoming election in the federal state of Saarland seemed to have little influence on the future course of Germany鈥檚 energy transition. But the Social Democrats' (SPD) nomination of former European Parliament president Martin Schulz as their frontrunner for the federal elections in September led to .

The so-called 鈥溾 makes the election a first test for possible coalitions on the federal level and thus the next "Energiewende government". Like at the federal level, Saarland is currently governed by a grand coalition of Germany's two largest parties, the conservative CDU and the SPD.

German election polling trend, showing the SPD's "Schulz-effect" setting in in February. Graphic/pollytix.de

If the Saarland SPD managed to take government leadership away from the CDU, this would have two important implications for the federal level, Jungjohann explained: 鈥淔irst, it would show that forming a red-red or red-red-green coalition under SPD leadership is possible,鈥 he said. If the numbers add up in September, this constellation might well serve as a template for Berlin, he said.

Tipping the Bundesrat majority 鈥渢o the left鈥

The second implication is the effect of Saarland鈥檚 coalition colours on the Bundesrat, the council of federal state governments. 鈥淭he majority in the Bundesrat could be tipped further to the left by a government excluding the CDU,鈥 Jungjohann told 威力彩玩法. This meant one of Germany鈥檚 legislative bodies could become more adverse to conservative energy and environment policies, according to Jungjohann. If the Greens formed part of Saarland鈥檚 next coalition, they would co-govern in 12 out of 16 federal states, 鈥渕aking them a very attractive partner on the national level 鈥 if they make it in Saarland,鈥 said Jungjohann.

The Green Party, currently polled at 4 percent in Saarland, is still fighting to make the threshold to enter parliament in the first place. With 53 percent of the population entitled to vote still unsure if and who to vote for, the ability of parties to mobilise groups at the last minute is a decisive factor, according to German pollster .

If the Green Party was part of a future federal government, energy and climate would inevitably be back on top of the agenda for coalition talks, Nick Butler recently pointed out in the Financial Times. The federal Greens published a first draft of their election campaign programme that showed the party is determined to make climate protection and 鈥渆cological modernisation鈥 the central issues of their election campaign.

Energy and environment policy 鈥減lay no role whatsoever鈥

By contrast, "energy and climate policy will play no role whatsoever in the Saarland election," Matthias Jung, of Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, told 威力彩玩法.

Campaign disputes in Saarland 鈥 a small state once heavily dependent on hard coal mining with only around one million inhabitants 鈥 are on education and spending policy.

Voters see questions of unemployment (19 percent), education (17 percent), and refugees/asylum (15 percent) as the most pressing challenges, Wahlen.

Saarland鈥檚 economy today is dominated by the automotive and steel industries, with two of being steel businesses and six car manufacturers or suppliers. The latter must prepare for the farewell of conventional engines, which could have significant impact on jobs and growth for the state. Ford that it would invest 600 million euros in its location in Saarland, which it called 鈥渁 clear commitment to Germany as the most important location in Europe鈥.

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