Would a far-right election victory in France knock down EU鈥檚 green hopes?
In a mere , French president Emmanuel Macron threw his country鈥檚 political class in turmoil by responding to the defeat of his Renaissance party by the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally 鈥� RN) party in the European elections. In his terse address on 9 June, Macron announced that he was dissolving the lower house of the country鈥檚 parliament ahead of its five-year term ending in 2027. This meant that for the first time since 1997, a snap election in two rounds within 40 days, on 30 June and 7 July.
In the EU elections, RN candidate Jordan Bardella, a young prot茅g茅 of party leader Marine Le Pen, by garnering over 31 percent of the vote, thereby . The far-right鈥檚 influence has thus never been greater in post-war France and Europe, as the RN , making it the biggest delegation ahead of the conservative German CDU/CSU alliance. 鈥淚 cannot act, at the end of this day, as if nothing had happened,鈥� Macron told citizens after the scale of his party鈥檚 loss became clear. 鈥淭hereby I dissolve, tonight, the National Assembly.鈥� The French are now called on to for the next five years. Macron himself, however, will not have to stand for election again before his term as head of the French state is scheduled to end in three years鈥� time. In the first ballot, MPs can already gain an absolute majority by receiving more than half of the vote in a constituency 鈥� and if no candidate achieves it, gaining a relative majority in the second round is sufficient to win the seat. The party winning an absolute majority in parliament can then pick the prime minister, who acts as head of government, while the president remains France鈥檚 head of state. In case of a relative majority, the president gets to pick the prime minister, who could hail from an alliance of several parties and not necessarily from the strongest one.
Energy was still at the heart of the political debates during the EU election campaign: the three main groups in the French snap election race 鈥� the far right, the leftist alliance and Macron鈥檚 centrist party 鈥� all positioned themselves on the matter and, with a view to restoring the French people鈥檚 purchasing power, made . On the other hand, environment-related topics were from most campaign debates. According to Phuc-Vinh Nguyen, a researcher on French and EU energy policy at the Jacques Delors Institute think tank, they will not be the focus this time either. 鈥淭he priorities are 鈥嬧�媝urchasing power, energy price hikes, and then security and immigration,鈥� he noted. 鈥淭he transition will likely be relegated to second place鈥� 鈥� even if French citizens still consider climate change . However, the economy鈥檚 transformation creates uncertainties and fears that were easily reclaimed by the RN, which in early 2024 to .鈥� 鈥淪o far, none of the progressive forces have been able to argue in a sufficiently convincing manner to counter this discourse,鈥� Nguyen added.
Dissolution - the solution?
At home and abroad, journalists called the president鈥檚 snap election decision a a or an that pushed the doors wide open to a far-right success. Macron was said to be or even having The French leader is seen to have rushed headfirst into turning the RN鈥檚 EU election triumph . Opposing parties, left and right, rejoice as they see their hour coming earlier than expected. If one of them wins an absolute majority in the National Assembly (at least 289 seats), a must be appointed, leading to a so-called In this power-sharing situation, and the National Assembly has the nation鈥檚 domestic, economic and financial affairs. In case of a relative majority, in the coming months.
The day after the snap election was announced, polls predicted that but would fall short of an absolute majority in parliament. The upcoming government would thus be compelled to use this opportunity and achieve concrete results in order to prevent the far-right from a full power grab in the 2027 presidential elections, Nguyen stated. 鈥淪uch a scenario would imply that the transition portfolio returns to the leftists, which would provide a dynamic stimulus.鈥� In case of an absolute majority, 鈥渨e can expect to the norms coming from Brussels, which would delay their implementation on the national level,鈥� he argued. 鈥淎t such stage, it is very clear that we won鈥檛 be able to hold on to our climate trajectories on France鈥檚 level for 2030.鈥� As a result, this would complicate things for the EU 鈥� also because 鈥渋ts disobedience could inspire other populist forces to do the same,鈥� Nguyen said.
The snap elections look set to weaken France's voice in the European Council, the body that brings together the EU鈥檚 27 national governments, as the president and the prime minister might no longer hail from the same party. Moreover, the snap election 鈥渢akes place during a key phase of negotiations about top jobs and the EU鈥檚 future roadmap" for the next five years, explained Neil Makaroff, director of the Brussels think tank . This loss of French influence goes hand in hand with the loss of German influence, following the election defeat for chancellor Olaf Scholz鈥�s Social Democrats (SPD) in the EU elections. 鈥淪cholz will also not have the same influence within the Council after the weak performance of the SPD," noted Makaroff.
President Macron likely had the before dissolving parliament. 聽 at a conference a few days later, he argued that 鈥渨hen 50 percent of the French vote for the extremes,鈥� leaving the government unchanged would mean 鈥渘ot respecting them.鈥� He called the snap elections a moment of 鈥渃larification鈥� and assured that he was not planning to in the next presidential election.
This assertion appears to be weakened by Macron insisting on and railing against 鈥渦nnatural alliances鈥� among left-of-centre parties that 鈥渁gree on pretty much nothing.鈥� By dissolving parliament, Macron broke the coalition between centrist parties and the left against the RN, argued analyst Nguyen. 鈥淔or now, the position in principle is: neither one, nor the other,鈥� he explained. Just like in the EU election, the leader of the EU鈥檚 second-biggest economy is being sandwiched between the far-right and the left. , he may have set everyone against himself, Nguyen added. 鈥淭here will no longer be a systemic logic prevailing in constituencies, but a personal one.鈥�
Left-wing alliance hopeful to fend off RN majority
Immediately after the EU election, the conservative Republicans , after he sparked an outcry by calling for a country-wide political alliance with the RN. But the far-right party might not even need such an alliance: by obtaining the dissolution it had repeatedly been calling for, the party capitalised on Macron鈥檚 unpopularity and asserted itself as a credible alternative for the next presidential election.
Meanwhile, it didn鈥檛 take long for France鈥檚 leftist parties . The Socialists, the Greens, the Communists and the left-wing populist France Unbowed all jumped aboard the anti-far-right train and formed a 鈥� in reference to the French political alliance founded in 1936 to combat fascism. Its precursor, the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (NUPES), had due to the polarising tactics of France Unbowed鈥檚 leader, three-time hapless presidential candidate Jean-Luc M茅lenchon. Colluding with such a figure could disrupt the that the new alliance found. However, deputy leader Fran莽ois Ruffin asked members of the French left wing: .
After focusing on their differences in the EU election campaign, finding common ground could have proven to be complicated, but led the leftist alliance to for . The wish list included domestic policy changes regarding purchasing power, wage increases, pension and unemployment reforms, and immigration. 鈥淓mmanuel Macron will not have a majority,鈥� said the Ecologists鈥� party leader, Marine Tondelier. 鈥淵ou know it, we know it, everybody knows it. (鈥�) And so today, it is either the far-right - or us.鈥� The leftist camp could thus count on the support, among others, of the , she said. There is, however, , as it remains a divisive subject among its members.
鈥淕reenblaming鈥� of EU Green Deal policies appeals to many voters
Meanwhile, the RN intends to use its newfound political clout to fight against what it calls "" in the form of the European Green Deal. At the EU level, it wants to reverse the decision to ban the sale of new internal combustion vehicles by 2035 鈥� an aim that it shares with the German CDU/CSU. It also wants to abandon the European Commission's "Farm to Fork" strategy, which the French far-right accuses of 鈥渄eliberately organising the drastic reduction鈥� of France鈥檚 agricultural output. Ingratiating itself with the country鈥檚 influential farming lobby, the RN argued in a position paper that EU environmental policy embedded in the strategy is 鈥渙ut of touch with reality,鈥� because 鈥渢he imperative of protecting nature鈥� is taking over 鈥渢he need to feed the population.鈥�
Known as the strategy of the French far-right is to make transition policies 鈥� and 鈥� the root of all evil by presenting them as detrimental to the French lifestyle. Energy prices are high? Blame the sustainable transition. Farmers are struggling? Blame the proposed reduction in pesticide use. New cars are too expensive? Blame the new environmental norms. Given the EU election results, it appears their appealed to a large number of voters. 鈥淲e are back to the dilemma 鈥榚nd of the world versus end of the month,鈥� Jacques Delors Institute researcher Nguyen said. Even if the RN's statements suggest a shallow grasp of the climate challenge, 鈥渋t has understood the French鈥檚 preoccupations,鈥� he emphasised. Although their stated aim to dismantle wind farms is currently popular, they may take a step backward once in power, Nguyen added.
But as uncertainties regarding are considerable, it is too early to anticipate any outcome. Whether the dissolution is , esterday鈥檚 news and France has signed up for a messy political landscape, .
