威力彩玩法

[Find a factsheet on Lower Saxony's power generation and latest polls here]

The upcoming vote in the state of Lower Saxony will provide fresh clues about voters' views聽 for the parties gearing up for coalition talks on a federal level. Once the regional election is out of the way, the talks to form a new German government can finally commence in earnest afer parties had swung back into campaign mode.

Lower Saxony is home to . The state on the North Sea coast also has the in Germany. More than 50,000 people work on onshore and offshore wind power installations, turbine factories, at bioenergy plants or solar power facilities. The Energiewende, the process of steering the world鈥檚 fourth largest economy towards a low-carbon energy system, therefore plays an important role in regional politics 鈥� and in turn is influenced by the new government in the state鈥檚 capital Hanover.

Lower Saxony has been governed by a coalition of Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party since 2012. But the so-called 鈥淩ed-Green鈥� coalition held only a very slim majority of one seat in the state鈥檚 parliament, which turned out to be a liability when a Green member of parliament defected to the conservative CDU in August. The move eventually led to a snap election three months ahead of the scheduled date and a lot of bad blood between the Greens鈥� and the CDU鈥檚 regional party branches.

Simon Fink, from the University of G枚ttingen, says the early election also stalls talks for a so-called Jamaica coalition - dubbed this way since the parties鈥� colours black (CDU/CSU), yellow (FDP), and green (Green Party) resemble the Caribbean country鈥檚 flag - at the federal level. 鈥淣obody from the national parties wants to spoil their colleagues鈥� election campaign in Lower Saxony by saying the wrong things in coalition negotiations,鈥� Fink told the 威力彩玩法.

He also believes that the row between the Greens and the CDU is likely to dampen the prospects for a Jamaica coalition at the regional level. 鈥淭he Green Party is still miffed about the defection. But we might still see a situation that makes this constellation necessary,鈥� Fink says. The CDU was comfortably leading in polls over the last months but the SPD recently gained ground again and is now on par with the conservatives, making several coalition combinations possible.

Wind power sector confident regardless of election outcome

Whatever the election鈥檚 outcome, Fink says no future government will be willing to fundamentally curtail the state鈥檚 leading role in wind power production. 鈥淚t鈥檚 just too important as an economic factor,鈥� he argues. The incumbent Red-Green coalition pledged to work towards to 20 gigawatt by 2050.

Fink says it is unlikely this strategy will be drastically altered even if a government coalition of the conservative CDU and the market liberal FDP took over - although the latter was running an election campaign on a platform of opposing 鈥渦ncontrolled鈥� wind power expansion and energy transition funding with support payments via Germany鈥檚 Renewable Energy Act (EEG).

The political clout of wind power operators and turbine manufacturers in the region meant that any government 鈥渢rying to axe wind power would shoot itself in the foot鈥� and therefore limited its intervention to slight adjustments of expansion goals and other minor parameters, Fink argues.

The German Wind Energy Association鈥檚 (BWE) Lower Saxony branch says it hopes that the state government will stick to existing expansion goals or even increase them regardless of the election result and also keeps advocating for the energy transition at the federal level. 鈥淭he state has a relatively small industrial sector and its vast rural areas can only benefit economically from wind power turbines that create value,鈥� BWE spokeswoman Linda Kabalan says.

But she says that the FDP鈥檚 courting of wind power opponents was a worrying factor for the industry lobby group. Before elections in Germany鈥檚 most populous state North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) last May, the party successfully campaigned for introducing stricter regulations on wind power construction, such as the 10H-rule - which stipulates a minimum distance for turbines to the next residential buildings equalling ten times the turbine鈥檚 height. 鈥淲e can only hope that the FDP is more reasonable over here because this rule will make further expansion very difficult,鈥� Kabalan says.

In a position paper to all of the state鈥檚 parties, the BWE called for a binding designation of about two percent of the state鈥檚 area for wind power installations. It also urged the easing of 聽restrictions on modernising existing turbine locations. Owing to the state鈥檚 early use of the technology, many turbines in Lower Saxony have been in operation for nearly 20 years and are due for replacement or retrofitting, so-called repowering measures, in the near future.

"Lower Saxony means VW"

The vote on Sunday will also be closely watched in Wolfsburg, hometown of Germany鈥檚 largest carmaker VW, which is by far the biggest single employer in Lower Saxony. The so-called VW Act, a unique law tailor-made for the relationship between the company and its host, stipulates that the state holds 20 percent of the company鈥檚 stocks, the state premier and the economy minister are part of its board of directors, and many municipalities in the region are financially dependent on VW鈥檚 success.

Social democratic state premier Stephan Weil was heavily criticised in August for letting the carmaker rubberstamp a government policy statement on Germany鈥檚 diesel emissions fraud scandal. But the SPD鈥檚 rivals could not make substantial gains from the revelations.

A reason can be found in the fact that previous governments under CDU and FDP control also closely coordinated their policy with VW.听 No party intends to substantially change the VW Act, as the .

Political scientist Fink, therefore, doubts that the company will be greatly affected by the election鈥檚 results, although the national Green Party鈥檚 plans to ban new registrations of cars with combustion engines could have a big impact on VW.

鈥淣o state government will be particularly strict with the company,鈥� which could always argue that a quick transition to electric engines put the state鈥檚 economy in jeopardy, he says. It is an argument which even the Greens find hard to invalidate. 鈥淟ower Saxony means VW and VW means Lower Saxony,鈥� Fink adds.