淨 Guide – Poland's new govt yet to deliver on energy transition promises
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(With contributions by Alicja Ptak and Wojciech Jakóbik)
Content:
Key background
- Since the October 2023 parliamentary elections, Poland has beenled by a broad, pro-European centre left to centre right coalition. The government, headed by former European Council president Donald Tusk, is made up of Tusk’s Civic Coalition (30.7%), the Third Way alliance (14.4%) and the Left alliance (8.6%). It has pledged toaccelerate the country’s energy transition. However, almost a year later it still hasnot delivered muchin terms of legislation or new initiatives.(mandated by the EU) has been presented and was the subject of public consultation. Although climate-focused NGOs welcomed the release of the plan, they criticised Poland’s hesitance to choose a more ambitious reform path to the climate ministry. Even though Poland is months late with the update, the government says it’s still working on the final version and will finish it in the second quarter of 2025.
- Poland was responsible for . Carbon emissions have fallen over 30 percent since peaking in the 1980s. Most of the reductions occurred in the 1990s during the fall of communism and the . Emission levels have not changed significantly since 2001. Poland's current greenhouse gas emission reduction (for domestic transport, buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste) is 17.7 percent compared to 2005. It is far less than in countries like Germany or Denmark (50%), but Poland's total emissions in 2022 were just two percent below 2005 levels.
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In the past years, Poland saw a in its electricity mix, from 70 percent in 2022 to about 57 percent in 2024. In the same year, the country increased its share of electricity generated from renewables by 2.3 points, to 29.6 percent. But even with the rise in renewables, coal remains the main source of electricity. Poland’s power sector has in the European Union, making the coal phase-out a key challenge. Moreover, Poland is the only country in the EU that for ending coal power use. The country’s energy sector is dominated by big, state-owned or partially state-owned companies, like the oil corporation Orlen or Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE), an energy company that owns coal plants and mines.
- Poland has , oil and coal supplies, after being heavily reliant on imports from Russia. In 2023, subsidies were put in place to keep gas and electricity prices down - but this cost. The government . After peaking in 2023, the wholesale price for energy has (though at a level significantly above pre-2022 prices).
- Air pollution is a fuelled not just by cars, but also by furnaces, as no other EU country uses nearly as much coal for heating.
Major transition stories
- The burden of coal – Coal power is the heaviest burden on Poland’s energy transition. The previous government said that Poland would be the last EU country to use coal for power generation well into the 2040s. With ageing plants and , many coal plants will face closure earlier than planned, possibly threatening Poland with . The new coalition government plans to accelerate the deployment of renewables which, if realised, would make the need for coal marginal around the late 2030s. More than a year after taking power, however, it still failed to deliver much of the legislation that would facilitate achieving this ambition. Just transition plans have been drawn up for coal regions, but not all of them will receive EU funding – the lignite mine in the region of . A year into a new government in the office at prolonging the capacity market support for coal beyond 2030 and is . Extraction at the open-cast lignite mine at , is to be finished in the 2030s. Until then, the mine will receive funding. With a rising CO2 price in the EU ETS, coal is driving up electricity prices.
- Battery power-house — Poland is not among the EU’s leading car producers, but there is a sector that stands to gain from the transition to electric vehicles: battery production. In April 2023, Poland overtook the U.S. as the country with. The sector sees the rise of EVs and energy storage . But a BloombergNEF sees Poland falling behind the U.S., Germany, Hungary and Sweden by 2027. New EU rules on carbon footprint.
- Going nuclear – Poland has not been able to successfully build a nuclear power plant, despite ongoing efforts since the 1970s. The first initiative from 1971 made it to the construction phase, but communism and protests. A newer project, which began in 2009, . Now is the furthest any nuclear project has come since the fall of communism, . While 2033 was the official opening date initially planned, now looks more realistic. In February 2025over 60 billion zloty (14.5 billion US dollars, the funding's currency) for the plant’s development, which would cover around 30 percent of the projected total costs. The rest is expected to come from foreign borrowing. Willingness to provide such borrowing – up to $17.1 million - by U.S. Export-Import Bank and US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) which considers providing $1 billion in financing.Poland is also working on selecting a second location for another nuclear power plant and plans to announce the decision . Another public-private project being considered is a partnership with the . State oil company
- Wind of change – Wind power development has . However, the new that aimed at creating more favourable conditions for onshore wind expansion. The bill is in parliament by thespecial subcomitee inside State Assets, Energy and Climate Committee. Per a draft of its climate plan, Poland could double its onshore wind capacity between 2024 and 2030. Meanwhile, the European Commission has to build a terminal to facilitate the construction and servicing of offshore wind farms in the city of Gdańsk. In early 2025on Baltic Power, the first offshore wind farm in Polish waters, with almost 80 15-megawatt turbines.
- Solar boom — Solar PV in Poland exploded from a marginal capacity in 2018 to over , having supplied in 2023 (up from 5.7% in 2022) with both rooftop solar and utility-scale projects. However, this has , leading to due to outdated regulations or just too much electricity for the grid to cope with.
- Poland has assumed EU Council presidency - On 1 January 2025, Poland took over the six-month rotating presidency of the EU Council. It is also arguing for quitting all fossil fuels imports from Russia.
- Heating in peril – Sixteen million Poles are keeping their homes warm in winter with district heating, the among all EU countries. The vast majority of district heating systems use coal and are considered inefficient. “underinvested, outdated and unprofitable,” with customers bearing the brunt of rising costs. heating plant based on . It was, built with government support, using solar, heat pumps and heat storage. In March 2025, EU member states agreed with of allocating an additional 30 percent of free emission allowances for district heating, a decision hailed by the Climate Ministry as success of Poland's EU presidency.
- Clean(er) air – Poland’s struggle with high air pollution has for years focused on heating, but now it is also starting to tackle cars. As of June 2024, (Strefa czystego transportu - SCT) in the country. The city will gradually ban older cars (especially diesel-powered ones) from its centre. There will be, however, numerous exemptions. For example, the ban will not apply to the city’s residents until 2028. Cracow, infamous in Poland for its smog levels, was the first to agree on a Clean Transport Zone, but the bill was on formal grounds.
Sector overview
Energy
- Responsible for .
- In 2024, coal It remained the largest proportion by far in the EU, despite the significant drop from 70 percent in 2022. Wind and solar power’s share together rose to 23.7 percent and renewables in total reached almost 30 percent.
- Theligniteplant PGE Bełchatów is the EU's, but now it has a plan to close down gradually until 2036 ().
- Poland plans a gradual phase-out of coal, replacing it with a mix of renewables and nuclear generation. New fossil gas plants are also to be built, but after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
- In 2021, Poland adopted the with the following main targets: 32 percent of renewables in electricity generation and no more than 56 percent of power from coal by 2030, and the first nuclear power plant starting operation in 2033. The plan has beenand parliamentaryas “unrealistic.”Donald Tusk’s government, ruling since December 2023, is working on an update to the document (with no deadline officially presented yet).
- In a update of Poland’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), the climate ministry outlined an “ambitious” transition scenario for 2030: 50.4 percent GHG reduction (compared to 1990); 56 percent of electricity generated from renewables sources; and the share of coal-fired power generation falling to 22 percent (from 61 in 2023). Following the consultation period 25 climate-focused NGOs to commit to the more ambitious scenario and not settle for “an unspecified compromise”.
The document is expected to be finished in the before it is put to a vote by the Council of Ministers and ultimately sent to Brussels.
- , the installed capacity of photovoltaic panels and wind farms reached a combined 32.1 GW in October 2024, of which around 21 GW are solar PV. In 2014, total capacity was only around 3 GW.
Industry
- Responsible for 14.8 percent of totalGHG.
- It covers about.
- Energy intensity of industry (per GDP unit) is above the EU average, but companies are increasingly lookingand use zero-carbon energy, bothand
- are comprised of both private domestic and international companies (like ArcelorMittal) and partially state-owned companies (like Orlen and Grupa Azoty). The sectors of Polish industry which emit most CO2 are
- In 2022, energy-intensive industries. The high carbon intensity of the power sector is not only driving up prices, but also increasingly threatening their business as more and more clients are looking not just at price, but also at the carbon footprint.
- A draft was presented in September 2024. It aims to regulate hydrogen operating systems and create institutions similar to those already existing for gas, such as the company responsible for gas transmission infrastructure. The aim is to facilitate investments in hydrogen infrastructure.
Buildings
- Responsible for.
- Solid fuels (coal, wood) anddistrict heating(mainly coal plants) dominate in the heating sector, but gas boiler use has increased in recent years and(according to incomplete government data).
- The energy crisis has, but they remain a small percentage of all installed heating systems.
- Until recently, Poles as87 percent of the total amount of coal burned by EU households,and almost in Poland are characterised bylow energy efficiency.In 2022, the government for coal sold to households due to the energy crisis, and later extended that until the end of 2023.
- The current government targets are:coal phase-outin city households by 2030 and outside cities by 2040, with all heating covered by “low emission sources” ordistrict heatingby 2040 (experts point out that this). Thesets a target of renovating and insulating 236 thousand buildings per year between 2020-2030, with numbers increasing in the next decades.
- Polish cities have some of the worst air quality levels in Europe with buildings being (mainly solid fuels furnaces)
- Almost 29 billion PLN (€6.9 billion) were for household ; but The programme was due to “irregularities” and is set to return on March 31 2025.
Mobility
- Domestic transport is responsiblefor 19.9 percent of total GHGemissions and is the only sector that had its emissions increase between 1990 and 2021.
- In 2019, the government adopted the . It assumes an 8 percent rise in CO2 emissions from transport by 2030 (compared to 2017) and has no specific target for the number of EVs.In aupdate to Poland’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), Donald Tusk’s government concludes that it will be “impossible” for Poland to meet the EU’s target of 29 percent of renewable share in the transport sector – it projects a 17,7 percent share by 2030.
- The PiS government, in its official plans, was aiming for zero-emissions public transport in the biggest cities by 2030, as stated in Energy Policy of Poland (). In 2016, then-deputy prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that there will be one million electric cars in Poland by 2025, but, as of January 2025, According to Eurostat data, in 2023, Poland had the . The country also has just under 9,000 charging points.
- A new electric car subsidy Worth PLN 1.6 billion (€380 million), the program provides subsidies of up to PLN 40 000 (€9,540) for the purchase of an electric car (if all conditions are met). The funds come from the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility.
- Transport is the area of the transition which the United Right government, at least rhetorically, promoting electromobility and even initiatingNow the project’s future is in question as the new coalition will be reviewing controversial initiatives from the PiS era. In September 2023, state auditors published a report stating that the project was "" Over a year later, however, there is still no decision on the construction of the production plant.
- Poland is the EU’s, but the industry
- Poland, and second-largest in the world (after China).
Agriculture
- Responsible for9.5 percent of total GHGemissions in 2021, mostly in the form of nitrous oxide and methane (caused in around equaldirect livestock emissions).
- There is no governmental emissions reduction target; the government.
- The governmentin rural areas and providing low carbon energy.
- The effects of climate change, especially drought,
- Like in much of the Europe, big farmer protests took place in Poland in the first months of 2024., but opposition to elements of the EU Green Deal were also among the reasons for the protest. Agriculture minister Czesław Siekierski (PSL/Third way) also, and the government
Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
- Forests and other areas remain a carbon sink and removed 35,6 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents in 2022. Around 30 percent of Poland is covered by forest (a number similar to countries like France or Germany) and around 80 percent of them are state owned and managed by a special public company, State Forests National Forest Holding. In 2022 State Forest had a record income of 13.5 billion PLN (~€3.1 bln) from selling wood. In recent years, the company has come under criticism from NGOs and private citizens for a number of issues, from lack of transparency to logging in old-growth forests. The Donald Tusks government is working on reforming the institution and protecting 20 percent of forest.
- The level of CO2 removal by forests has been decreasing over the last decade, with a sharp fall in recent years (from over 40 million tonnes to just over 20 million tonnes). According to Poland'sthe main reasons are due to the long-term effects of disasters like permanent drought and storms with strong wind causing trees to fall.
- The former United Right government has been pointing to forest sequestration as a climate solution,; but sequestration levels have been falling and in 2021 it amounted to only 52 percent of Poland’s target for 2030.
- In one of the first decisions of the climate ministry under the new government, logging was temporarily halted or at least reduced in The coalition has promised to increase protection of 20 percent of the public forests by next election (in 2027).
- The new ruling coalition also , as well as expand existing ones. It notes national parks cover only 1.1 percent of Poland’s land area compared to an EU average of 3.7 percent.
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