Ukraine war overshadows energy and climate talks at G7 summit in Bavaria
Locked away from public scrutiny in a remote castle with beautiful views of alpine peaks, the Group of Seven (G7) major democratic economies are set to come together next week for their annual leaders鈥� meeting. For a second time after 2015, Bavaria鈥檚 Schloss Elmau spa resort will provide the 鈥渟cenic backdrop鈥� 鈥� as German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit put it announcing the location last December 鈥� for the talks among some of the world鈥檚 most powerful leaders.
Protected from all-but-certain protests by a massive police presence, G7 leaders will have the unavoidable focus on the fallout of Russia鈥檚 war against Ukraine 鈥� leading to that after two years of pandemic neglect, the climate crisis would still not get the urgent attention it deserves.
However, host country Germany intends to keep emission reductions high on the agenda. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said the G7 must not neglect this global challenge and cooperate closely 鈥� 鈥渘ow more than ever鈥� --, adding the move to climate neutrality has become more important as renewables are key to ending dependence on Russian fossil fuels.
鈥淭he war will undoubtedly feature high on the G7鈥檚 agenda, but I don鈥檛 think it will completely derail it,鈥� says political analyst Ella Kokotsis of the G7 and G20 Research Groups. She says the German G7 presidency has long emphasised that the climate crisis is a central issue and expects strong leadership from Scholz. 鈥淭he German G7 presidency is very well positioned to make a difference on climate change in Schloss Elmau.鈥�
Other experts are less optimistic. 鈥淐limate should be at the very top of the summit agenda, because the solutions to the crisis are also the best energy security responses,鈥� says Luca Bergamaschi, co-founder of the Italian climate change think tank ECCO. 鈥淭he question is whether leaders recognise this, or prefer to invest in fossil fuels and thus create dependencies and increase the risk of overshooting 1.5掳C.鈥�
When Germany presented its G7 presidency priorities in January 鈥� one month ahead of the start of the war 鈥� it set a clear focus on improving coordination of global efforts to combat climate change. The chancellor鈥檚 pet project is an open and cooperative 鈥榗limate club鈥� of ambitious countries, and the government aims to establish new partnerships on climate, energy and a just transition with emerging and developing countries.
The agenda is very full, and it is unclear whether the leaders are willing to make a step forward.
According to Bergamaschi, to make the summit a success, the members of the climate club must make tangible commitments, for example on industry decarbonisation. In addition, the G7 should agree an end date for coal power and be willing to update their climate targets in line with the 1.5掳C target. They must also avoid expanding gas infrastructure domestically and abroad and make new pledges on finance, for example on loss and damage, Bergamaschi says.
However, it is uncertain whether the G7 will agree anything substantial. 鈥淭he agenda is very full, and it is unclear whether the leaders are willing to make a step forward compared to the climate ministers,鈥� he says.
One month prior to the leaders鈥� summit, G7 climate and energy ministers had committed to making their electricity systems 鈥減redominantly鈥� carbon-free by 2035, but stopped short of setting a specific date for exiting coal. With a much broader agenda now, big steps on these issues are less likely.
Support of climate club idea among G7 uncertain
The climate club is easily the most prominent of Germany鈥檚 G7 climate initiatives. Scholz pushed the idea already when he was still finance minister under former chancellor Angela Merkel.
Germany it wanted a climate club to agree uniform standards for the emission and pricing of CO2 鈥� possibly even in the medium term.
Marian Feist, researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), sees several issues with the original climate club proposal. Many observers 鈥渟truggled to identify the essence of the initiative,鈥� an issue that is not quite resolved, he says, pointing to rather vague formulations in the recent . 鈥淚t鈥檚 hard to tell even within the G7 how much support there is for individual aspects of the initiative.鈥澛�
Secondly, the original ambition of the German G7 presidency was high. 鈥淔or some elements of the original climate club proposal you could be quite certain that they do not align with the interest of all G7 members, in particular comparable carbon pricing systems.鈥� The U.S. and Japan are unlikely to introduce broad nationwide carbon prices any time soon, Feist says.
Lastly, the climate club runs the risk of becoming a 鈥渞ich countries鈥� club,鈥� so the G7 must send the right signals to developing countries that the club takes their key concerns seriously, he says.
To make the summit a success, the leaders would have to set up a climate club that maintains a high level of ambition but is politically feasible. 鈥淟ooking at all the other alliances and partnerships that exist to try and compensate the lack of enforcement mechanisms in the Paris Agreement, there is a danger that this is going to be yet another initiative that is going to fizzle out at some point.鈥�
Planned partnerships must not be 鈥渆mpty boxes鈥�
Germany has announced its aim to make cooperation with emerging and developing countries another key focus of its G7 presidency 鈥� with climate, energy and development partnerships as tangible outcomes. At the summit, 鈥渨e want to start concrete initiatives and partnerships for climate and sustainable investments,鈥� .
The country made headlines at the UN climate conference in Glasgow last year. The U.S., the UK, France, Germany and the European Union to help South Africa accelerate its move away from coal with 8.5 billion U.S. dollars. The deal is seen as a blueprint for Germany鈥檚 G7 presidency.
鈥淲e know that some countries are under evaluation, including India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Senegal,鈥� ECCO鈥檚 Bergamaschi says. 鈥淲e will see whether a partnership will be announced at the summit or at a later stage.鈥�
India鈥檚 Economic Times a proposal for a partnership to help fund and support the country鈥檚 transition from a 鈥渇ossil-based economy to a carbon neutral economy,鈥� which could be announced at the summit. India鈥檚 government was still evaluating the proposal at the time of reporting.
Bergamaschi says it might be better not to rush things, as Germany remains G& president until the end of the year. The biggest risk is to make announcements that later turn out to be 鈥渆mpty boxes that damage the credibility of the G7. So, it might be better to wait and come up with real pledges.鈥�
G7 must agree fast coal exit to avoid losing credibility vis-脿-vis China
After failing to set an end date for coal at the ministerial level, it seems unlikely that the leaders would be more ambitious.
The that the German government pushed for a 2030 phase-out date but run into resistance from the U.S. and Japan.
Analyst Bergamaschi calls on the G7 members to live up to their responsibility and consider what an exit date could communicate to the rest of the world. 鈥淚t is critical globally to send a signal in particular to China and India that the G7 are moving fast towards a coal phase-out,鈥� he says. 鈥淥therwise, the G7 risks losing credibility vis-脿-vis those countries.鈥�
This is crucial since the G7 summit is an important stepping stone towards the G20 summit in Indonesia and the UN climate change conference COP27 in Egypt later this year.
鈥淚t will be crucial for the G7 countries to create the right momentum for the COP, but also give the right signals of inclusivity and openness on the club idea to indicate that they take their obligations of climate finance seriously and are thinking about the concerns of developing countries in terms of loss and damage,鈥� researcher Feist says.
After the climate ministers鈥� meeting in Berlin in May, Germany鈥檚 Robert Habeck expressed hope that the impetus of the meeting could be transferred to the G20. 鈥淲e are obliged to do everything in our power to make the G20 a success,鈥� he .
Scholz must show leadership
The new German government has put climate change 鈥渇ront and centre in all things foreign policy,鈥� SWP鈥檚 Feist says. Placing climate negotiations in the hands of the foreign office and introducing former Greenpeace head Jennifer Morgan as climate envoy certainly mean that Germany鈥檚 standing on climate among the G7 is strong.
Accordingly, the government can hardly afford to come away empty-handed. In the end, however, much of the summit鈥檚 success could come down to one person 鈥� Scholz.
The chancellor has come under a lot of criticism during his first months in office, not least for his botched communication on Ukraine, where he 鈥渟truggled to explain his foreign policy goals to allies and citizens,鈥�
On climate, Scholz now must show leadership, Bergamaschi says. 鈥淪o far, we have seen a rather shy and unambitious chancellery, but now is the first opportunity for him to really define what climate leadership looks like,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his cannot be just the climate club.鈥�
