Survey reveals many German economists ignorant of key coal exit details
A survey by the well-known Ifo Institute for Economic Research, conducted in collaboration with leading conservative daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, found that 42 percent of the 143 economics professors polled believe that聽Germany鈥檚 coal exit will not lower Europe鈥檚 total CO2 emissions. , Ifo suggested this is because the European emissions trading system (ETS) creates a single, shared carbon budget for participating countries. "If there is no change in the certificates for CO2聽emissions in the EU, other countries will probably emit more," the press release states. But Germany鈥檚 coal exit proposal explicitly says that emissions allowances equal to the amount saved by coal plants closures should be deleted.听When contacted by 威力彩玩法, Ifo Institute said it was unaware of this key detail.听
In its report on the survey, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung also wrote that "the main argument of the sceptics is that total CO2 emissions in the EU are determined by the upper limit of certificates in the European emissions trading system. If Germany demands less certificates, emissions will simply be transferred to other contries."
But the proposal from Germany鈥檚 coal exit commission states that 鈥渁dequate effectiveness of the national decommissioning of lignite and hard coal plants also has to be ensured within the ETS framework.鈥� The task force recommends the government make use of the option to delete allowances from national auction budgets in 2021. When this was pointed out, the Ifo report's author, Niklas Potrafke, told 威力彩玩法 he found it "implausible" that the government would follow through. But the environment ministry said the goverment intends to follow the commission's reccomendation.听 鈥淥f course we will use this possibility,鈥� a spokesperson .听
The coal comission report also says that buying and deleting allowances is already possible in the current trading period, running through the end of 2020. Ifo Institute is one of Germany's most important economic think tanks, and has been a vocal critic of energy transition policies in the past.
The survey has prompted sharp criticism from other media commentators. In a in the left-wing tageszeitung entitled 鈥淪trong on opinions, but weak on facts,鈥� Malte Kreutzfeld wrote 鈥渕ore than anything, the survey shows that German economists don鈥檛 follow current climate policy developments.鈥� Kreutzfeld also took aim at economists鈥� predictions that the coal exit will trigger large power price increases, saying that it 鈥渁lso shows a certain distance from reality." A sizeable minority of those surveyed said they expect price increases far in excess of forecasts by the country鈥檚 biggest industry lobby association BDI.
