EU climate plans near top of Germany鈥檚 "coronavirus presidency"
The agenda for the German EU Council presidency starting on 1 July was filled to the brim even before the global pandemic upended years of planning by the federal government. Chancellor Angela Merkel has made clear that tackling this 鈥渂iggest challenge in the history of Europe鈥� will be the focus over the coming six months. Researchers and politicians alike Germany鈥檚 tenure the 鈥渃oronavirus presidency鈥�.
While climate and energy may play second fiddle, they are set to play a strong role in the pandemic recovery efforts. Merkel has called for a recovery plan that speeds up the transformation to 鈥渁 new way of working and economic activity鈥� 鈥� a transformation she said is driven by climate change and digitalisation. And EU leaders have to agree on a 2030 climate target before the year is out.
鈥淭here were already high expectations for the German Council presidency even before the COVID-19 crisis and now they are even higher,鈥� says Sophie Pornschlegel, senior policy analyst at the European Policy Centre (EPC). Germany is one of the biggest and economically most powerful countries in Europe, which already sets the bar high, she told 威力彩玩法 (full interview). In addition, there are many important deadlines in the second half of 2020, such as the negotiations on the long-term budget (MFF) and Brexit. 鈥淣ow, the 鈥楴ext Generation EU鈥� recovery package comes on top.鈥�
Pornschlegel says the recovery plan and the long-term budget are 鈥渨here one can really push for a good sustainability agenda鈥� and Germany should use this opportunity early in the presidency. If, however, the climate and energy agenda is pushed to the end of the presidency鈥檚 term, 鈥渢hat means not much will happen,鈥� she warns.
Agreement on 2030 target and climate law main objective 鈥� official
Before the coronavirus crisis hit, the EU and Germany were seen to hold a pivotal role in driving global climate ambition in 2020. Germany had long planned to put a focus on climate action and 鈥� in the words of environment minister Svenja Schulze 鈥� use the presidency to 鈥渕arch ahead and pull others along鈥�, such as China. A meeting of EU and Chinese leaders was scheduled to take place in Leipzig in September and many hoped it would produce some kind of joint climate announcement. Due to the pandemic, the meeting has been postponed, as has the UN climate conference COP26 in Glasgow, and priorities were reset. 聽
If and when the EU-China meeting does take place, climate will still be on the agenda, said minister of state in the foreign office Michael Roth . He said Germany will push for three things: an investment agreement, 鈥渟trong commitments in the fight against climate change鈥�, and a closer cooperation in third countries, including African countries. Roth said he still hoped the meeting would take place not just virtually 鈥渂ut also physically, maybe in Leipzig or another nice German city.鈥�
We have two major process objectives on climate policy for the presidency: to reach an agreement among member states on the proposed EU climate law and on the 2030 target.
Leaders of Merkel鈥檚 coalition government published a after a meeting on 22 June which confirmed the central themes of a recent draft of the German Council presidency programme, including 鈥渁 sustainable Europe鈥�. The draft, seen by 威力彩玩法, is somewhat more detailed and names an ambitious climate and environmental policy as one of the priorities. The cabinet plans to adopt the final programme on 24 June. German officials have continued to emphasise the climate focus in over recent weeks, with environment minister Schulze saying 鈥渢he fight against climate change is at the top鈥� of her presidency agenda.
"We have two major process objectives on climate policy for the presidency: to reach an agreement among member states on the proposed EU climate law and on the 2030 target," says Eva Kracht, who heads the Europe department in the environment ministry.
This agenda, says analyst Pornschlegel, is purely driven by European and international developments and is not a new initiative by the German government. 鈥淭he German presidency does not want to be too creative on this and will instead support what鈥檚 already out there. It鈥檚 quite a pragmatic approach.鈥�
Even so, success will be no small feat. The negotiations for an ambitious 2030 target were always going to be a challenge, but the pandemic has intensified this. Several countries, , have said that they want to wait for the results of a cost-benefit analysis the European Commission has for September. Based on this impact assessment, the Commission will then make a concrete proposal, and the more critical member states are bound to have a very close eye on what it would mean for their economies.
Other obstacles to reaching an agreement include the decision on whether to create new climate policy instruments or act within the boundaries of the main two current ones. Here, the question will be whether to put more emphasis on reduction in the sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) or on the so-called effort sharing sectors like transport and buildings. Many countries, including Germany, have struggled to bring emissions down in these areas, and chancellor Merkel has said that difficult negotiations would await on how to allocate efforts to the different member states.
In addition, a planned carbon border adjustment mechanism is supposed to play a central role in shielding European industry from carbon leakage should the EU increase its climate ambition. A concrete proposal for such a mechanism will likely not be presented any time soon.
Leading German scientific institutions just published a joint statement with recommendations for a path to greenhouse gas neutrality in Europe. Aside from 鈥渘o regret鈥� measures including strengthening wind energy and photovoltaics, and expanding power transmission and distribution grids, as well as e-mobility, the institutions see a cross-sectoral, EU-wide uniform CO鈧� price as a cornerstone of climate action.
Chancellor Merkel has said she 鈥渨elcomed鈥� the general recommendation by the Commission to increase the EU鈥檚 greenhouse gas reduction target to -50 to -55 percent over 1990 levels, from the current -45 percent 鈥� a wording adopted also in the draft programme.
Time is pressing. The Paris Climate Agreement the European Union to 鈥渃ommunicate or update鈥� its nationally determined contribution (NDC) 鈥� its 2030 target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions 鈥� by the end of this year, so a decision has to be found during the German presidency.
"If we don't manage to find an agreement on the 2030 target this year, we have a political problem," the environment ministry鈥檚 Kracht told 威力彩玩法.
The draft programme also states Germany will work to ensure that the EU and its Member States continue to act internationally as ambitious and active players for climate diplomacy. It wants to accompany the Green Deal with an 鈥渁ctive energy foreign policy鈥� and update the EU energy diplomacy action plan.
鈥淲e are mediators. We don鈥檛 want to dominate the European Union鈥� 鈥� minister of state
For the first time in 13 years, Germany will hold the EU Council presidency over the next six months. The Council represents the executive governments of member states, and the presidency rotates among EU member states every six months. It is not only responsible for setting policy priorities and planning and chairing meetings among ministers and heads of government, but it must also try to reach agreement on laws with the EU鈥檚 other legislative bodies 鈥� the Commission and the Parliament.
鈥淒uring the presidency we are mediators,鈥� said minister of state Roth. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 want to dominate the European Union.鈥� Much in the same vein, Roth also praised cooperation within the framework of the so-called 鈥溾��. Together with the two next Council presidencies, Portugal and Slovenia, Germany is part of a trio that has developed , although it remained vague on energy and climate. 聽
Pornschlegel says while the Germans do not want to be seen pushing too much for their own national interests, they are a country that carries a lot of weight. 鈥淯nfortunately, it is still the big countries that have the power in Europe,鈥� she says. In addition, Germany is far from being a neutral actor, for example when it comes to agreeing a coronavirus recovery package. Germany and France had presented a joint proposal in May. 鈥淲hen you are Germany 鈥� and when you have a Franco-German initiative 鈥� you can definitely move things forward,鈥� says Pornschlegel.
This conflict will be one of the difficulties for Germany over the coming weeks, she says. 鈥淚n public statements to date, [the government] has shown that it really wants to be an honest broker and find an agreement, because the presidency鈥檚 success depends on it.鈥�
The home country of the Energiewende often portraits itself as a leader on energy transition and climate policy and past international efforts have earned Merkel the nickname 鈥渃limate chancellor鈥�. But while the country passed a climate action law and decided to quit coal, it has dropped to rank 20 in the World Economic Forum's Energy Transition Index. Many international observers also point out that its coal exit plans lack the ambition of other countries such as Spain and criticise that the country is too prone to protect its car industry, still producing mostly fossil-fuel powered cars.
EU recovery programme first test for German presidency
Pornschlegel says the negotiations for the recovery programme including the long-term budget can be considered a first test for the German presidency and timing is of the essence. If EU leaders do not manage to find a deal during a planned meeting in July, then things will get difficult for the German presidency, she says. By contrast, 鈥渉aving an agreement by July would be setting the tone and making things much easier for the Germans.鈥�
While Germany has not said it aims to make green growth the underlying condition for all recovery support, it does aim to give it a nudge. 鈥淥ur goal is to use the negotiations to give the topic of greening the economy an extra push,鈥� a government official told 威力彩玩法 ahead of a video conference on 19 June in which European leaders exchanged first views on the recovery package.
In her speech before parliamentarians, chancellor Merkel had said that the European Commission鈥檚 growth strategy 鈥渙ffers a central guideline and also a great opportunity in regards to economic recovery, especially for European companies with a high level of innovative strength.鈥�
The European Commission鈥檚 Next Generation EU plan to set aside 25 percent of all funding for climate action and includes a 鈥渄o no harm鈥� test which will in principle exclude support for fossil fuels.
It remains to be seen to what extent member states include green growth in the end. The environment ministry鈥檚 Kracht told 威力彩玩法 that "there is the idea to hinge economic recovery funds on certain climate conditions鈥�, without giving details.
European Commissioner in charge of the Green Deal Frans Timmermans there is an 鈥渁ppetite鈥� in the European Parliament and the European Council to accompany the planned increase of Just Transition Fund support with criteria, for example that it could have consequences if a country does not commit to the goal of climate neutrality by 2050.
Using the recovery funds in return for a commitment to more ambitious climate targets might be 鈥渁 step too far and create even deeper political rifts on the issue,鈥� warns Michael Pahle, head of the climate and energy working group at the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
In the end, attempts to push through climate conditionalities might fall victim to the need to hammer out an agreement on the bigger package, says Pornschlegel. She said the German government should try to dedicate more funds to climate action and digitalisation in the long-term budget, because the recovery package is more short-term.
My feeling is that many countries are already looking at Germany and that it has gained credibility with the better-than-expected stimulus programme proposal.
Germany does not see the negotiations surrounding the long-term budget and the recovery fund as a first test for its presidency, the government official told 威力彩玩法. 鈥淲e are an important member state, but in the end we have one vote and everyone has to agree.鈥� The official added that European Council president Charles Michel is responsible for the talks and Germany would aid where possible. This usually also extended to bilateral talks between Merkel and other leaders.
German environmental NGOs had called on the government to use its presidency of the EU Council to urge other member states to align their national stimulus packages with climate action. 鈥淢y feeling is that many countries are already looking at Germany and that it has gained credibility with the better-than-expected stimulus programme proposal,鈥澛燝ermanwatch聽chairwoman Silvie Kreibiehl told the 威力彩玩法. 鈥淕ermany can move the discussion forward.鈥�
鈥淎 higher target has to be underpinned by instruments鈥�
While the greater agreements on a green recovery or a more ambitious 2030 climate target is necessary and important 鈥� and Germany can help facilitate them 鈥� these also have to be filled with life to be successfully implemented. As is so often true, the devil is in the details 鈥� in this case the details of countless EU regulations.
鈥淭he problem is that the required reform and further development of instruments like expanding the EU-ETS is not really tackled, because we lack the necessary EU process,鈥� PIK鈥檚 Pahle told 威力彩玩法. He warns the Commission鈥檚 impact assessment may be delayed, because some parts have to be re-worked due to the pandemic. The assessment is meant to kick-off the official debate on the 2030 target, but it might not be published by September or October as planned. 鈥淪o it is quite possible that the German presidency will not get to moderate the debate on how to reach higher greenhouse gas reduction target. In that respect, that鈥檚 bad luck on timing for the presidency.鈥�
Pahle says a higher target must be underpinned with instruments. 鈥淲e are in a situation where basically everything has to be re-adjusted, because everything is interlinked and some things are incompatible.鈥� He adds that the necessary legislative processes will not start before next year.
